by SHAFIQQUL ALIFF / pic by TMR FILE

THE Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) further revised downward its 2021 passenger traffic forecast between the fourth quarter of 2020 (4Q20) and 2Q21 to contract by between 77% year-on-year (YoY) and 80.2% YoY, translating to between 5.3 million and 6.1 million passengers.

The figure is significantly lower compared to the 18.9 million to 20.6 million passengers previously expected in April 2021.

“This revised forecast assumes a lower load factor and a longer period of seat capacity recovery by airlines,” Mavcom said in a statement yesterday.

Mavcom executive chairman Datuk Seri Saripuddin Kassim (picture) said while future trends indicate a potential increase in domestic travel as the nation moves closer to reaching herd immunity and travel restrictions are relaxed for fully vaccinated passengers, the recovery rate of the sector remains uncertain.

“Beyond the pandemic, Mavcom is working hard, in consultation with industry players, to prepare for the jumpstart of the aviation sector.

“Nonetheless, it is crucial for all stakeholders to be prepared for a new market that will be dominated by price-sensitive leisure travellers,” he said.

In light of this, the commission expects cost containment and reduction to become top priorities for airlines as well as airport operators,” he said.

In 2Q21, the total passenger traffic stood at 1.3 million, the lowest since 2Q20.

The reimplementation of Movement Control Orders starting from 4Q20 until 2Q21 had halted the recovery of domestic passenger traffic as well as international passenger traffic remains marginal due to the ongoing international border closures.

“Despite the current low passenger traffic numbers, the near-term biggest anticipated travel trend is an increase in the domestic, short-haul travel by fully vaccinated passengers,” it said.

Mavcom said the cargo volume increased by 80.4 % YoY in 2Q21, owing to strong demand for vaccinations, medical equipment, personal protection equipment, electrical and electronic components, and e-commerce growth.

It expected air cargo traffic in 2021 to expand by between 26.5% and 28.2% YoY and subsequently recover to the pre-crisis level.